Bus Stop: Detroit?

Who wins Super Bowl XL?

One the one hand, this game seems easy to predict. The Pittsburgh Steelers have seemed like a team destined to win the Super Bowl ever since they made the playoffs. After beating the Cincinnati Bengals (without Carson Palmer, admittedly), the Indianapolis Colts, and the Denver Broncos, they are playing in Detroit for the Lombardi trophy. Plus, they have the added motivation of playing to try to get running back Jerome Bettis a Super Bowl ring before he retires, and this is a great chance to do that.

On the other hand, the Seattle Seahawks are a team that just gets it done. Without getting a lot of national attention, they calmly won eleven games in a row during the regular season and have won convincingly in the playoffs. A team with few big names, they play a very nondescript, effective game, scoring the most points in the NFL during the regular season. Even when people have doubted them, they have come through with a win.

So what exactly is the reason the Steelers are currently four point favorites in this game? Perhaps a look at the top ten factors might yield the result.

10. Depth and Balance. The Steelers are walking proof of this. Running back Willie Parker filled in admirably during the annual Duce Staley injury and the ailments of Bettis early in the year. The Steelers have good balance all around, especially on offense and particularly in the backfield. But the Seahawks have as good—if not better—balance on offense. The team famous over the past three years for having three equal receivers still has their multi-faceted approach and can put up points any way they want to. Neither team has the edge here.

9. Joe Jurevicius. The lanky WR has carved a niche in this league as a great third receiver on great teams, with the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers during their Super Bowl runs, and is doing it again this year. In a career year, Jurevicius stepped in and provided some much needed hands for a offense that had lost its main receiver when Darrell Jackson was injured. Jurevicius is a receiver to watch out for, with good hands and a long frame, and could play an impact for Seattle in this game.

8. Ken Whisenut. One of the main reasons for Pittsburgh’s success in the playoffs has been their exceptional playcalling and game planning. And nowhere has this been more evident than with the offensive strategy, which Whisenut has coordinated. Unlike the porous Bengals defense, the Colts and Broncos finished in the top three for points per game allowed. In the Denver game, particularly, the Steelers offense shredded the opposing defense, and a lot of this credit goes to the shrewd Pittsburgh coordinator.

7. Upgrades in the passing game. Both the Seahawks and Steelers upgraded this category throughout the year. Steelers tight end Heath Miller was an immediate impact in the red zone, and Hines Ward has stepped up there as well. For the Seahawks, the receivers may be mostly the same, but the drops aren’t. For the first time in a few years, Matt Hasselbeck’s receivers are catching his passes and not dropping the football in crucial spots. For an offense built on efficiency like the Seahawks, this is huge. However, there is no real advantage here for either team.

6. Matt Hasselbeck. Perhaps the embodiment of the Seahawks no-frills attack, Hasselbeck quietly put up great numbers, completing 65.5% of his passes, tossing 24 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. In addition to being an accurate passer, Hasselbeck is a scrambling threat, and has managed to cut down on his fumbles in his Pro Bowl season.

5. Ben Roethlisberger. Despite missing a chunk of time due to injuries, the second-year quarterback put up similarly good numbers; in fact, the two quarterbacks’ QB ratings differed by 0.4 points. And the people who said Roethlisberger couldn’t throw downfield need look no further than his league-leading 8.9 yards per attempt. Add all this to the intangibles he brings as the leader of the team and you have a truly unique athlete.

4. Shaun Alexander. Another player on the Seahawks who made the leap from good to great recently, Alexander has become one of the top six running backs in the NFL and has become a better team leader at the same time. Alexander set an NFL record with 28 touchdowns during the regular season, and has returned well from a scary concussion during the Seahawks first playoff game against the Redskins.

3. Troy Polamalu. Although most people will remember him for his hair, Polamalu’s play over the past three years has been impressive. Polamalu came out of college with a knack for roaming the field and stopping the run. Since then, he has improved into one of the best safeties in the NFL, capable of doing whatever is needed for his team. Like Seattle rookie Lofa Tatupu, whose instinctive play has made him a leader on defense, Polamalu is a player who can give teams fits with his talent.

2. Coaching. Both Bill Cowher and Mike Holmgren are two of the best coaches in the league. Nobody has a higher winning percentage over the past ten years than Cowher, but Holmgren has won a Super Bowl (1997, with the Green Bay Packers). Both have set up successful systems and transformed their respective franchises. Perhaps one has an edge on the other, but it’s negligible.

1. Jerome Bettis. The Bus forestalled retirement and came back for another year after Ben Roethlisberger promised him they’d make it to the Super Bowl in his hometown of Detroit. One of the game’s great running backs, Bettis is still something to be watched, but he is not the same player he was even a few years ago. He will probably retire after this year and finish in the top ten for all-time rushing yardage, but he cannot carry a team like he did before.

However, a similar situation happened in 1998. Broncos quarterback John Elway was notorious for being unable to win the Super Bowl, until the Broncos defied the heavy odds and stunned the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. It may have been Terrell Davis’ three-touchdown performance that won the MVP, but everyone knew that “This one’s for John.” In the same way, the Steelers are playing for Bettis, trying to send the great athlete out on the highest of high notes. Couple this intangible with a superior defense and you have a recipe for a thrilling game with a Steeler victory.

Prediction: Steelers 20, Seahawks 16.